If you are a Buyer in Great Falls, Virginia, it might be the time to start looking.
In October, we had a total of 18 closed sales, 2 of the sales were Bank Mediated (11 percent).
According to Trulia (see below) As of November 15 there were 248 resale listings as well as 21 homes in the foreclosure or auction process.
In the last five years the Great Falls area has had a depreciation value of 22.1 % so, if our property was worth one dollar on November of 2010, it is worth 78 cents today. Of course, the County kept on increasing the values instead of adjusting them to reality. That is why sales are below assessment value, not consistent with the rest of the market.
The Chart above depicts sales by month, IE in October there were 16 regular transactions (Yellow) plus 2 Bank owned (Magenta). Total 18 closings
Let us now look at a 5-year trend that shows us the average sold and the average list price, this is viewed in quarters in order to show long term movements.
My interpretation of the chart tells me that the gap is closing and therefore, asking or listing prices are getting closer to the actual sales prices. This could be an opportunity for anybody looking to buy now although, we don’t know what the future will bring.
A large percentage of economists expect an interest rate increase soon, mortgage rates will follow and the affordability factor might price some buyers out of the market.
There are many other factors that influence the Market for example; amount of listings (22066 is at 216), local economy (we are still extremely dependent on USG spending) and the probability of another recession (we might be due for one).
Again, if you are a buyer, keep your eyes open and don’t wait too long the average sales to original list price in October was 91 % the lowest was 88.2 % in February.
If you are a seller, please price according to the Market and be patient. At the rate of sales, we are experiencing, we have almost a year of inventory.
Just my opinion, hope it helps and call or email me if you have any questions.
Charts from Smart Charts, some quotes from Trulia.
Summary for Great Falls, 22066 According to Trulia
The median sales price for homes in ZIP code 22066 for Aug 15 to Nov 15 was $915,000. This represents a decline of 16.8%, or $185,000, compared to the prior quarter and a decrease of 24.8% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have depreciated 22.1% over the last 5 years in 22066, Great Falls. Average listing price for homes on Trulia in ZIP code 22066 was $1,570,195 for the week ending Nov 18, which represents an increase of 1.4%, or $21,532 compared to the prior week and an increase of 0.6%, or $8,899, compared to the week ending Oct 28. Average price per square foot for homes in 22066 was $306 in the most recent quarter.
Average price per square foot for Great Falls VA was $306, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Great Falls VA for Aug 15 to Nov 15 was $915,000 based on 29 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 24.8%, or $302,500, and the number of home sales decreased 27.5%. There are currently 248 resale and new homes in Great Falls on Trulia, including 4 open houses, as well as 21 homes in the pre-foreclosure, auction, or bank-owned stages of the foreclosure process. The average listing price for homes for sale in Great Falls VA was $1,570,195 for the week ending Nov 18, which represents an increase of 1.4%, or $21,532, compared to the prior week.
And finally, rates
Rates on home loans were down slightly in the past week. Freddie Mac announced that for the week ending November 25, 30-year fixed rates eased to 3.95% from 3.97% the week before. The average for 15-year loans was unchanged at 3.18%. Adjustables were mixed, with the average for one-year adjustables decreasing to 2.59% and five-year adjustables rising to 3.01%.
A year ago, 30-year fixed rates were at 3.97%, virtually the same as today's levels. Attributed to Sean Becketti, chief economist, Freddie Mac --"In a quiet week leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday, the 30-year fixed rates dipped 2 basis points to 3.95 percent. Economic releases over the last week contained no major surprises, and none are expected in the next few days. The year is winding down, and the only remaining market dates of note are December 4 -- the last employment report of the year -- and December 15-16, the long-awaited FOMC meeting.
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